MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — An increasingly active autumn weather pattern is setting up across the northern United States, with warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf and Atlantic expected to fuel rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Plains into the Midwest and East.
An active jet stream will help drive storm development as a front moves into increasingly warm and humid air.
Thunderstorms are expected to erupt Friday afternoon and continue into Friday night, stretching from northern Kansas toward northwestern Ontario. Some of the strongest storms could produce damaging hail, powerful wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms is expected across central and northern Minnesota, putting communities there on alert as the storm system develops.
Severe Weather Shifts Into Central Plains
The threat will shift south and east on Saturday as storms become more active across the central Plains.
From Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, thunderstorms could develop from central Kansas through southeastern Nebraska, northern Missouri and southern Iowa.
The strongest storms may again produce damaging hail and powerful wind gusts, along with the possibility of a few tornadoes.
Meanwhile, torrential rainfall could create localized flash flooding, particularly in places that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms.
A separate area of severe weather is also expected Saturday afternoon and evening across southeast Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.
That means the storm threat will not be confined to the central Plains, with multiple regions potentially facing dangerous weather at the same time.
Tornado Threat Could Increase Sunday and Monday
The storm pattern is expected to intensify again Sunday as a potent system emerges from the northern Rockies.
Severe thunderstorms could develop from eastern Colorado across much of Nebraska and South Dakota Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night.
These storms may produce damaging hail and powerful wind gusts, while repeated downpours could result in localized flash flooding. The threat is expected to expand eastward Monday.
Thunderstorms could stretch from northeastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into northwestern Missouri, much of Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Forecasters warn that the Sunday-to-Monday setup could have the potential to produce multiple tornadoes because of the amount of energy available from the jet stream.
At the same time, the storm system will begin pulling colder air into parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
Heavy Rain and Snow Arrive With Colder Air
The changing weather pattern will bring more than thunderstorms. Higher elevations of Idaho and Montana could see snow later this weekend as colder air moves into the region.
Farther east, the storm system will spread drenching rain across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
From Sunday night through Monday night, heavy rain could extend from the southern Canadian Prairies into parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin.
While repeated rainfall could create flash-flood concerns in areas that have already experienced frequent rain this summer, the precipitation could also provide some benefits.
Where rain has been limited, additional moisture could help ease drought and wildfire concerns. Persistent clouds and rain could also keep temperatures unusually cool, with readings potentially remaining in the 60s and even the 50s in some locations.
Drought Improves Across Parts of Colorado, But Southern and Western Areas Get Worse
Another round of soaking rain could develop farther south during the middle of next week, potentially spreading from the central Plains eastward toward Lake Erie.
Northeast Faces Weekend Rain and Storms
The Northeast is also expected to turn wetter after a brief period of drying weather through Friday night.
Moisture returning from the south will interact with a front approaching from the Midwest and another disturbance moving northward from the Gulf.
That combination could produce rain and thunderstorms across much of the Eastern states from Saturday into Sunday.
Saturday night could bring the heaviest rainfall from northern Maryland and Delaware through Pennsylvania and New Jersey into southeastern New York.
The zone of heavy rain is expected to shift eastward Sunday, reaching southern and central New England.
Another cold front could also trigger heavy, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms from northern Ohio to southern Quebec Sunday afternoon and evening.
By Monday, high pressure is expected to settle over the Northeast, bringing mostly rain-free conditions. However, showers and thunderstorms could linger along the southern Atlantic coast.
Is severe weather already affecting your area? Share your local conditions and storm experience in the comments.
